Who will be the Suns’ biggest X-Factor this season?

A monumental season lies before the Phoenix Suns. This isn’t a put-up-and-shut-up type of season. This is a show-up or blow-it-up season.

When Bradley Beal arrived in Phoenix, despite what some felt, this always was a two-year experiment. Year One was James Jones and his staff understanding what archetypes to put around the Three to allow them to be successful. They tried high-upside players who were younger. That didn’t work. The bench was reset halfway through the season last year.

Jones has pivoted to experienced veterans who may not possess a high ceiling but have a much more sustainable and predictable floor. Putting these players around Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal will hopefully equate to the desired success we all crave. It’s these players who could determine the fin—

Oh, hello subjective statement! I was in the middle of a thought, but feel free to come in and make yourself comfortable. What’s your name? “X-Factor”? Sounds cool, I guess. Are you one of Professor Xavier’s kids? No? Ohhhh. You’re a typical troupe that writers use to compare and contrast non-star players via intangible qualities? Well, pleased to me you.

I guess we’re talking about ‘ole Mr. X-Factor here.

So which one of the players around the Big Three is the most important? Who needs to have the best season supporting the Big Three? Why does this guy think it’s okay to turn the lights off in my office while I write? Oh, you get migraines? It’s your world, we’re just living in it...

The Case for Jusuf Nurkic

I believe that is an ideal fit for this team. Why? Because this team is unbelievably top-heavy relative to salary, therefore can only afford a mid-level center. And when you look at mid-level centers available, the list is very short. No one is an All-Star. No one possesses five tools that are above average. So you take what you can get, and Nurkic ain’t that bad.

Nurk Daddy provides above-average rebounding, above-average size, and above-average playmaking from the center position.

You’re not going to find a mid-level center who checks every box, and Nurkic has his flaws too. Defensively, he’s average overall, and he struggles on the perimeter. Ideally, we’d like to see him stronger around the basket, finishing more consistently without missing easy shots.

But if you’re making the case for the most important role-player, the biggest “X-factor” this season, it’s because you’re going to need stability on the interior. You have a team full of mid-range shooters. If they’re missing shots, you want that rebounding. You want those second-chance points.

Nurkic can provide just that.

There is a slight opportunity and hope that my Budenholzer can do with Nurkic what he did with Brook Lopez, that is, make him effective enough on the offensive perimeter to spread the floor. Given his passing acumen, this could create nightmares for opposing teams.

Last season, we saw plenty of dribble handoffs with Nurkic as the initiator. He has the vision to pick apart defenders and the basketball IQ to read the game. If everything clicks, he could be the perfect fit.

The Case for Tyus Jones

Having point guard stability is something we’ve yet to see with the Big Three. Sorry, Saben Lee just didn’t cut it. Having somebody who not only can run an offense but do so without turning the ball over...that is what Tyus Jones brings. That is what is going to allow this team, especially on offense, to be lethal.

We won’t see Bradley Beal and Devin Booker having to figure out when to score and when to facilitate. Instead, they can run their off-ball sets, getting to their preferred spots on the floor, while Tyus Jones handles getting them the ball. And the Suns will maintain possession! They won’t turn the ball over and give the opposition a fast-break opportunity that leads to an easy two points and a momentum-shifting play!

Photo by Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images

The assumption is that Tyus Jones is going to start, but we all know — or at least I think we all know — that just because you start doesn’t mean you’re playing during some of the most important moments of the game. Those moments of the game are sometimes in the clutch. Sometimes they’re in the third quarter. Sometimes they’re the beginning of the fourth when you’re trying to hold onto a lead, but you cough it up because you don’t have a quality X-Factor type player.

This is where TJ could be inserted into this team and make them successful...X-Factor style. This is where he can equate to three or four extra wins that we didn’t have last season, simply by being competent.

The Case for Grayson Allen

Grayson Allen was an X-factor for the Suns last season, and perhaps our best one. We didn’t see it coming, did we? We didn’t see the steady shooting and consistent play that we received from GA on the horizon. He was an afterthought in the Deandre Ayton trade. But he went out and shot an NBA-best 46.1% from beyond the arc.

Regression is inevitable, and he’ll be moving to the bench this season instead of starting like he did last year. Keep in mind, he started 74 games for the Suns — the third most, behind KD’s 75 and Nurkic’s 76. But that doesn’t mean he can’t still be an X-factor for the team.

This season, he’ll take on a new role, one we originally expected him to fill last year: a scoring presence who brings energy to the bench. And when I say “personality,” I’m referring to his style of play, not his often expressionless demeanor.

Allen will be the key player stepping into Eric Gordon’s minutes, which is significant. Not only does he offer better defense, but he also brings the offensive spark the bench desperately needs. Last season, the Suns ranked last in three-point shooting from their bench unit, and Allen can help turn that around.

Even if there’s regression for Grayson Allen, that number should see an increase. That is X-factor worthy.

The Case for Royce O’Neale

I kind of feel like Royce O’Neale is the forgotten Sun this season. We haven’t talked about him too much and that’s probably because we expect that he will be a steady contributor who comes off the bench, executing decently both on offense and defense. But let me focus on that last word, as that is where his X-factor-ability can be impactful this season: “Defense”.

Royce wasn’t the best perimeter defender last season. But if you brought the ball down and attempted to go to the cylinder, Rolls would create havoc. As I noted in his 2023-24 Player Review:

Defensively, O’Neale was a solid when the opposition attempted to drive on him. His size, length, and lateral quickness made it hard for his assignments to be productive. His interior defense for a wing defender was above average, as he had a 23.3% block rate on contests — an A- rating in the 82%tile — and his rim points save per 75 possessions was in the 81%tile.

O’Neale was a solid defender when the opposition attempted to drive on him. His size, length, and lateral quickness made it hard for his assignments to be productive. But on the perimeter? O’Neale had his issues. His three-point contests graded as a D+,

Stats

The second unit can influence the outcome of a game in two key ways: by being offensively dominant and outscoring your opponent’s bench, giving the starters a better chance to succeed, or by locking down the opposing second unit with strong defense. That’s where Royce O’Neale shines.

He’s our top wing player off the bench — sorry to the Bol-ievers. While he might not have Josh Okogie’s motor, he’s our best three-and-D option. O’Neale can be an X-factor by consistently providing stability and production to the second unit. You might not always notice him, but his impact is undeniable — and that’s what really matters.

The Case for Bol Bol

He proved me wrong last year, forming into an effective player. Right when he was gettin’ goin’, ‘ol Frankie Vogel shut him down. That is the case for Bol reaching new heights: that he started his ascent to the top of X-Factor Mountain, but the tour guide gave him the wrong directions.

He has plenty of unique qualities. I’m still not sold on the physical intangibles. But this section is “The Case for Bol Bol”, not against it, so I’ll use some of the logic provided by Brandon Duenas recently:

What I saw in him last season was improved confidence for longer stretches. He was not forcing shots or carelessly turning the ball over like we saw in Orlando. His field goal percentage increased across the board.

He shot a career-best 71.7% from the field on two-point field goals. Along with that, Bol posted a career-best 42.3% from three-point range. While he only attempted 19 free throws on the season, he hit 15 of them, good for a 79% free throw clip.

That type of efficiency on a lower volume plus seeing just 10.9 minutes per game is something to keep in mind. He will not play a massive role offensively on a team with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. There will be times when help is needed, and if he is someone Coach Bud can trust, the opportunity will be there.

Look at those strides. Now think about Bol having Tyus Jones and Monte Morris looking for him in transition or in the half-court. I mean, at all times, really. This could be fun.

There’s your “how”! There’s your “why”! Some of the other X-factors may have the ability to assist in UNLEASHING THE UNICORN (as Elbow Jumper would say).

---

Oh, thank the lord. X-Factor left the room. And the building. He’s just a tad too subjective, right? But he did leave his cell phone unlocked and I’m going to have some fun firing off emails to his friends “Make-or-Break Season” and “The GOAT”. Is anyone still following this? Or am I out in the middle of a park, all alone, wondering why I went for an afternoon walk on a cloudless day in the hottest city in America?

So, who do you think has the best chance to be the Suns’ X-Factor this season? How do you define the term “X-Factor,” and which player fits the bill for excelling in that role this season? Let us know in the comments below.